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The Dragon's Next Roar

Richard Band

by Richard Band
Editor, Profitable Investing
August 4, 2003

China. You may admire it or you may fear it, but the world's most populous nation has become an economic force that investors can no longer ignore.

In 2003, it's estimated that China's output of goods and services (gross domestic product) will grow 7% in real terms. The United States will be lucky to grow 3%; Europe, 1%-1.5%. By all accounts, the same win-place-show order will prevail far into the future.

If you're serious about latching on to the major growth trends of the next 10 years, you need some exposure--direct or indirect--to the Chinese dragon. In our model portfolio, we're playing the China card in a low-risk fashion through Hong Kong.

As the Chinese economy expands, Hong Kong companies will be the first (outside the mainland) to benefit. They're helping to build the mainland infrastructure. They're financing trade and shipping Chinese goods to the outside world. My vehicle of choice for most investors is a Hong Kong index fund traded on the American Stock Exchange, iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (ASE: EWH, buy below $7.70).

But if you're a bit more aggressive, there's an even more direct way to hitch your wagon to China's success. China's currency, known as the yuan or the renminbi--has been fixed against the dollar since 1995. One dollar equals 8.28 renminbi.

Often, a "pegged" currency is a sign of weakness. Not in the case of China, though. China has run up a stupendous trade surplus with the rest of the world, particularly the United States.

Last year, America imported $103 billion more in goods and services from the Chinese than we exported to them. Wal-Mart alone buys so much Chinese merchandise that, if it were a sovereign nation, it would rank as China's eighth-largest trading partner, ahead of Britain and Russia.

Why is the world beating a path to China's doorstep? Simple: The goods are cheap. And why are the goods cheap? Partly because wages are low, but also partly because the Chinese currency is pegged at a drastically undervalued level.

Each year, London's Economist magazine takes a survey to gauge whether currencies are overvalued, undervalued or priced about right. The magazine's editors check the price of a McDonald's Big Mac in various cities around the world, translating the local price into dollars.

This year, the Economist found that a Big Mac in Beijing costs the equivalent of only about $1.20, versus an average of $2.71 in four major U.S. cities. In other words, the Chinese currency is almost 56% undervalued (in terms of purchasing power) against the dollar. Recently, the International Monetary Fund declared the renminbi "the world's most undervalued currency."

Treasury Secretary John Snow and Fedhead Greenspan have already started nudging the Chinese--ever so gently, but publicly--to revalue their currency upward. So far, the Chinese government has given no indication that it might break the peg. However, the pressure will only intensify as more and more U.S. manufacturers, unable to compete with low Chinese prices, shutter their doors and lay off workers.

My guess is that China will revalue sometime in the next 12-24 months. Either the currency will be pegged at a higher level, or it will be set free to float. In either case, the renminbi ought to fetch 20%-30% more dollars than it does today.

Until recently, mom-and-pop investors couldn't make a direct bet on the Chinese currency. Now, though, Everbank, the pioneering St. Louis online bank, is introducing renminbi deposit accounts. These new accounts pay 0.5% interest (about the same as most money market accounts in dollars nowadays) and carry FDIC insurance up to $100,000. Note, however, that the insurance doesn't cover currency fluctuations.

If the Chinese renminbi goes up, so will the value of your account. (The account will go up 1:1 in line with the renminbi.) If, by some mischance, the currency goes down, you could lose money.

Given China's enormous ($300 billion) reserves of foreign currency, I think the chances of a drop in the renminbi are slim. Your main risk is that an upward revaluation could take longer than you expect. To me, those are the earmarks of an excellent speculation.

What to do now: For more details on renminbi deposit accounts, visit Everbank's Web site at www.everbank.com or call 800/926-4922. Minimum to open an account: $10,000. As with other money market accounts, you can withdraw cash anytime without penalty.

Richard Band is America's #1 investment advisor for individuals seeking low-risk growth. His conservative model portfolios have multiplied eight times in value since 1984, while taking far less risk than popular stock index funds. Band authored Contrary Investing (named "Best Investment Book of the Year"); is an in-demand speaker at investment conferences; and has won numerous awards, including in the coveted "Best Financial Advisory" category multiple times. To try his Profitable Investing service without risk, click here now.

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