Well, the good economic news just keeps coming and coming. Last
Friday, we learned that the U.S. economy created jobs for the
fourth month in a row, and the unemployment rate dropped 0.1% to
5.9%. I expect that the unemployment rate will drop 0.1% almost
every month between now and the November 2004 presidential
election.
The U.S. economy is steadily increasing new jobs. Many analysts
were critical of this because they thought even more jobs would
be created, but the economy is indeed working and that's the most
important thing. Productivity surged in the third quarter, being
revised up to 9.4%. It's unbelievable--an unreal rate. That
means that the living standard in the U.S. will continue to rise.
Interestingly, the ISM manufacturing index hit a 20-year high.
Much of the surge in manufacturing is due to the weak U.S.
dollar. The U.S. economy grew 8.2% in the third quarter, but
Canada only grew 1.1%. Canada has a strong currency and the U.S.
has a weak currency, so it's clear that the weak U.S. currency is
causing exports to surge.
This is just wonderful news. The economy is still very strong
this quarter. Businesses are aggressively spending money so they
take advantage of accelerated depreciation by the end of the.
Capital spending is surging. Retail sales got off to a very
strong start over the Thanksgiving weekend.
I expect the stock market will continue to benefit from strong
economic growth, surging corporate profits and positive seasonal
forces. From Thanksgiving through the end of the year, I expect an
impressive rally. This is as good as it can possibly get. Fed
Chairman Alan Greenspan also seems very pleased with the strong
economy and record productivity, and he hinted that the economy
should be creating new jobs soon. Greenspan also plans to keep
short-term interest rates low for the next several months. In
fact, I don't think the Fed will raise rates until after the
election because they don't want to be seen as partisan.
What many investors interpret as bad news is really turning out
to be good news. China's re-emergence as the new economic engine
in the world is helping boost U.S. exports, improve productivity
and raise living standards throughout the world. In fact, a weak
dollar just makes China stronger because the Chinese yuan is tied
to the dollar. As of the third quarter, China and the U.S. were
the two fastest-growing economies in the world. I also expect
that the weak dollar will help boost the profits of many large
multinationals.
Speaking of profits, the big news early next year is that when
the fourth-quarter earnings are released, it will likely represent
record corporate profits. But the stock market will not reach a
record high early next year. However, by the end of 2004, I
expect that the Dow and S&P 500 will be at all-time highs. I
expect that the NASDAQ will continue to perform magnificently
next year, but it will take at least two years or more for the
NASDAQ to reach a new high.
I truly believe that we're entering a great era for investors.
The strongest economic growth in 20 years has arrived.
The market will be surging for at least several months
as it follows record corporate profits and reaches
new highs. The Fed will hold rates steady for several months as
extra insurance. The flow of funds into the stock market is very
consistent and will continue to boost leading stocks higher. I
expect that the market will remain strong right up to the
election, as the stimulus provided by the Fed and Congress will
help the economy grow by at least a 5% annual rate for the
foreseeable future.
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