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Who Will Win the Smartphone Smackdown? |
June 19, 2009 By Tobin Smith, Editor, ChangeWave Investing |


Tobin Smith
Tobin Smith is the founder and editor of ChangeWave Investing. He also serves as executive editor of ChangeWave MicroCap Investor, and contributes his weekly market outlook and editorial rants to ChangeWave's WaveWire e-letter, which is read by more than 250,000 investors each week.
I'm a big professional basketball fan, and one of my favorite players is Paul Pierce of the Boston Celtics. In a now-famous quote, Pierce once described what it felt like when a player is in the zone, "The rim is looking bigger and bigger every game."
Now, being in the zone when it comes to diagnosing the trends in specific market sectors is a feeling I've been fortunate to experience for many years, thanks to the ChangeWave Alliance Research Network.
By conducting targeted surveys of experts in specific industries, the ChangeWave survey results have accurately called many of the biggest secular growth trends of the past decade.
One of the sectors we've been able to dial-in the best is smartphones.
The most recent ChangeWave surveys show big demand for smartphones (as opposed to ordinary cell phones) going forward. In fact, demand has never been bigger, and we're actually seeing that demand accelerate.
So which smartphone manufacturers are set to make the biggest splash?
Which Smartphone Will Reign Supreme?
Perhaps the coolest smartphone on the market today is Apple's (AAPL) iPhone. I know many of my friends are going to stand in line Friday so that they can be among the first to get their hands on the new iPhone 3GS. The new version of the iPhone is coming out just in time to steal the thunder from the recently released Palm (PALM) and its new Pre smartphone device.
Of course, the biggest player in the smartphone space is Research In Motion (RIMM) and its iconic BlackBerry. On Thursday, the company released results for fiscal Q1, saying earnings jumped 33%, thanks to strong BlackBerry sales. RIM said it earned $643 million, or $1.12 a share, compared to earnings of $482.5 million, or 84 cents a share, for the same period the previous year.
Although these numbers were good enough to beat consensus Street estimates, these days, good isn't good enough. RIM's all-important revenue numbers going forward were not so good. The company said it expects revenue to come in the range of $3.45 billion to $3.7 billion for Q2, with earnings between 94 cents and $1.03 a share. Analysts were expecting $3.6 billion in revenue with earnings of 95 cents a share for the period. As a result, we saw RIM shares take a hit in after-hours trading (though it eventually rebounded).
I suspect the battle for smartphone supremacy will really start heating up between Apple, Palm and RIM, especially considering overall demand for smartphones is going to be quite strong going forward.
Now the real question becomes which of these stocks will make the biggest splash in investors' portfolios?
Although RIMM, AAPL and PALM have all enjoyed big runs higher this year, currently I only recommend buying Research In Motion and Apple. Both firms are leaders in their respective fields, while Palm still has a lot of catching up to do before it can get back in the smartphone fight.
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