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A Peek at the Future of PC Stocks |
August 19, 2009 By Tobin Smith, Editor, ChangeWave Investing |


Tobin Smith
Tobin Smith is the founder and editor of ChangeWave Investing. He also serves as executive editor of ChangeWave MicroCap Investor, and contributes his weekly market outlook and editorial rants to ChangeWave's WaveWire e-letter, which is read by more than 250,000 investors each week.
I remember way back when, during the dot-com boom, PC stocks were the darlings of Wall Street. Along with just about anything Web-related, I recall PC stocks making a lot of people a lot of money.
Fast forward about a decade, and in a quiet, yet not too subtle way, PC stocks have once again become a favorite of Wall Street. In fact, over the past six months the "big three" computer makers — Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Apple (AAPL) — all have enjoyed big runs.
Apple shares are up nearly 70% in the last six months, while Dell shares have risen almost 60%. Hewlett-Packard shares are up a very respectable 25%, although that gain is quite a bit less than its competitors.
But the question now is will these stocks continue to do well going forward, and what does the latest earnings data and industry research tell us about the future of PC stocks?
Earnings for Computer Makers Look Good So Far
On Tuesday, Aug. 18, we found out that Hewlett-Packard beat both its bottom line and top line earnings estimates. The company said net revenue was $27.5 billion for the most recent quarter, while earnings came in at 91 cents per share. Wall Street had been anticipating revenues of $27.3 billion and earnings per share of 90 cents. The earnings beat caused H-P shares to surge in after-hours trading.
Last month we found out that Apple blew through their consensus Street estimates with authority. Despite the recession, the company's profit jumped 15% in Q2 to $1.23 billion, or $1.35 per share. Apple's profit was $1.07 billion, or $1.19 per share, in the same period last year.
On Thursday, Aug. 27, we'll find out how well Dell did in its second quarter, but if their results are even moderately encouraging, it will be a good sign that things are improving for the big three computer makers.
But what about going forward?
Corporate PC Spending Shows an Improvement Overall, Especially Dell
To get a sense of the future climate for PC makers, we polled the ChangeWave Alliance Research Network. The following results are taken from the most recent corporate and consumer PC surveys.
The latest Alliance corporate IT spending survey (conducted in June) shows U.S. tech spending stabilizing, with a dramatically improved outlook for the third quarter. The findings also point to the first uptick in business PC spending in 18 months.
So what does this mean for the major PC manufacturers?
First we need to understand that corporate sales account for nearly 80% of Dell's (DELL) PC business, and almost without exception, Dell has been losing market share in our ChangeWave corporate surveys since it peaked back in August 2005.
However, the current survey shows a slight uptick for Dell in planned Q3 desktop and laptop PC purchases. This represents Dell's first rise in the business PC market in nearly four years.
The survey found that Apple's corporate PC market share continues growing, with 9% of respondents saying their company plans on buying Apple laptops and 7% planning to buy Apple desktops in Q3. These numbers are nice improvements over the previous survey, but more importantly, these percentages represent all-time highs for Apple in the business computer market.
5 Reasons Why Apple (AAPL) Is a Must-Own Stock
As for Hewlett-Packard's corporate PC results, well, they do appear stable going forward, with planned laptop purchases up slightly, while planned desktop purchases remain unchanged since the previous February survey. I should point out that about 70% of H-P's sales come from outside the U.S., while the ChangeWave surveys focus primarily on the U.S. market.


