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How to Spot a Market Bottom

December 8, 2008

By Richard Band, Editor, Profitable Investing

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Richard Band

Richard Band

As editor of Profitable Investing, Richard E. Band is the newsletter world's #1 authority on investing for low-risk growth. His flagship Total Return Portfolio has tripled in value since its inception in 1990, while taking far less risk than the popular stock market index funds.

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Where are we headed, and what should you as an investor be doing right now? (See also: "Making Sense of This Crazy Market.")

Given the severity of the market selloff, it's prudent to assume that a recovery for stocks (and, afterward, the economy) will take longer than we might have expected as recently as a couple of months ago.

Best case, the market could complete its bottoming process soon. But we'll need to monitor the action day by day, which is what I do for my Proftiable Investing members in my subscriber-only blog that I update frequently. Click here to join today and receive immediate access to my very latest advice.

To get a real, sustainable bottom, we'll be looking for evidence in the weeks ahead that buyers are growing braver and sellers less bold.

Trading volume in advancing stocks should run well ahead of that in decliners — not just for a day or two, but for at least two weeks at a stretch. The tribe of stocks touching new 52-week lows should diminish substantially.

Gold prices, spreads between T-bill yields and bank rates, and other "fear" indicators should retreat. Otherwise, I'll recommend that my readers take additional defensive measures beyond the cash raising we executed during the summer.

Meanwhile, if your portfolio is already close to my recommended weighting of 62% stocks and 38% fixed income, you're playing it just about right for now. With your cash and bonds, you've already built a considerable degree of safety into your investments. (See also: "5 Top Income Stocks to Buy Now.")

What To Do Now

It's smart to upgrade your portfolio whenever Mr. Market gives you a chance.

Take advantage of strong up days to weed out stocks and mutual funds that no longer fit into your overall plan (and to raise cash if you're overweighted in equities).

Is anything worth buying in here?