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Economic Turnaround Ahead?

March 18, 2009

By Paul Carton, Director of Research, ChangeWave Alliance

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Retail Spending Trends

Costco (COST; +3) and Wal-Mart (WMT; +2) are the only U.S. retailers in our survey that registered even a slight increase in overall spending going forward.

A Look at Walmart and Costco

Nonetheless, for the third month in a row, spending on Household Repairs/ Improvements has shown signs of inching up. And while Restaurant spending continues to be the weakest of all categories, here too we're seeing a slight improvement over a month ago.

Consumer Electronics spending, however, has once again recorded a record new low for a ChangeWave survey. Only 10% of respondents say they'll spend more on electronics over the next 90 days compared to 46% who will spend less, a net 5-pts worse than previously.

And there's more bad news for industry leader Best Buy (BBY). Even though its perennial rival has closed the doors for good, Best Buy shows no signs of capitalizing in terms of increasing its market share in home entertainment shopping going forward.

On the contrary, even with Circuit City gone only 33% say they'll shop at Best Buy over the next 90 days - 5-pts less than in February and the lowest level since we first began asking this question nearly three years ago.

Best
Buy Consumers

On a brighter note, Amazon (AMZN) (26%; up 1-pt) continues to hold its own in the home entertainment and networking market, up 1-pt since the previous survey.

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