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Massive Breakdown in Consumer Spending

November 17, 2008

By Paul Carton, Director of Research, ChangeWave Alliance

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  • Two-thirds of respondents (64%) report dissatisfaction with their personal finances, a whopping 15-pt jump since September.
  • In addition, 76% say the current state of the economy is worse than they thought it would be 90 days ago—a 2-pt increase from previously.

Retail Store Trends

For the sixth consecutive survey, Costco (COST; Net Score = +8) and Wal-Mart (WMT; +5) remain the overall retail leaders going forward. Once again, it's traditional retailers—Sears (SHLD; -13), Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY; -12), Macy's (M; -10), JC Penney (JCP; -9) and Linens N Things (-8)—that are showing the greatest weakness going forward.

November 2008 Consumer Spending Survey

In a nutshell, while everyone knows that it's going to be a tough holiday spending season, these survey results show we're in the midst of a massive consumer spending breakdown that now has a huge percentage of the U.S. public squeezing all they can out of every dollar.

And that includes gift shopping dollars. By a 12-to-1 margin (48% Spending Less Money vs. 4% Spending More Money) respondents report they'll spend less money on holiday shopping this season than they did a year ago.

For protection in this challenging market, ChangeWave subscribers have been advised to invest in Short ETFs. These are a great way to profit when the market goes down. During October, ChangeWave sold partial positions in 4 short ETFs, for profits of 55%, 77%, 89% and 99%—and two weeks ago, we recommended three new EFTs. To find out the names of these ETFs and to sign up for a free 90-day trial to ChangeWave Investing, click here.