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Apple Ups the Ante With 3G iPhone

July 18, 2008

By Paul Carton, Director of Research, ChangeWave

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It’s been just over a year since the iPhone was released, and Apple (AAPL) is upping the ante in the smart-phone wars (see also, "The iPhone Winner and Loser").

We’re talking about the release of the new 3G version of the iPhone.

Our latest ChangeWave survey of 3,567 consumers—conducted in the aftermath of Apple’s June 9th announcement on the release of its 3G model—shows the next generation iPhone having a tsunami-like impact on the smart phone market.

But hold on…

Market leader Research-In-Motion (RIMM)—maker of the ubiquitous BlackBerry—hasn’t taken this latest salvo lying down. The company has up to three new releases on the horizon that it expects will provide highly attractive alternatives to the 3G iPhone.

The Coming Apple Tsunami

We asked consumers who currently own a smart-phone or who plan to buy one in the next 90 days to tell us the manufacturer.

RIM (42%; unchanged) holds steady as the consumer smart-phone market leader among current smart-phone owners, even as second-place Palm (14%) has sunk to a record low.

Consumers: RIM/ Blackberry vs. palm vs. Apple Current Market Share

But the biggest mover here is the Apple iPhone (11%; up 2-pts)—which continues to make major inroads in the consumer marketplace (see also, "iPhone vs. BlackBerry: Consumers Speak Out"). Having gained market share for the fourth-consecutive survey, it is now close to wrestling the number-two spot away from Palm.

Good news for Apple, but it’s when we asked respondents about their planned smart phone purchases over the next 90 days that the full extent of the marketplace transformation becomes apparent.

An astonishing 56% of respondents who plan to purchase a smart phone in the next 90 days say they’re getting an Apple iPhone—a huge 21-pt. leap from the previous survey.

The chart below shows just how dramatic a jump in market share this represents.

Consumers: RIM/ Blackberry vs. Palm vs. Apple Future Smart Phone Buyers

Going forward, RIM’s share of consumer planned purchases is set to…