The core of Apple (AAPL) has always been Mac computers. And according to two new ChangeWave surveys, Apple's computer business is holding strong even in the midst of a sluggish U.S. PC market.

But sluggish it is. ChangeWave's May consumer survey (n = 4,403 respondents) showed weak personal demand for PCs over the next 90 days, and our May corporate survey (n = 2,049 IT buyers) also pointed to weak PC demand over the next 90 days.

A Resilient Apple

Despite the slower spending environment, Apple remains resilient.

In terms of laptop planned purchases for the next 90 days, Apple's consumer market share is holding steady at 31% - unchanged from the previous survey and still at near-record levels. Planned desktop purchases (27%) are down just 2-pts from the all-time high recorded in January 2008.

Apple is also bucking the trend in the corporate PC market. Plans for next quarter Mac purchases are up to a record high for Apple laptops (8%; up 1-pt), and have equaled the record high for Apple desktops (6%).

In another positive, the internal demand for Macs among corporate employees (18%) appears much higher than the current Mac user base (5%), according to the estimates of our 2,049 IT buyers - which points to continued growth opportunities for Apple in the corporate market.

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Finally, when it comes to consumer satisfaction, nobody is stronger than Apple. A whopping 84% of consumers who bought an Apple over the past 90 days say they're Very Satisfied - 31-pts higher than their next closest competitor Dell (DELL).

Dell PC Results Decidedly Mixed

Looking at the next 90 days, it's a mixed bag for Dell.

While consumer purchase plans for Dell laptops (33%; up 5-pts) appear positive, desktops are set to take another hit (29%; down 3-pts).

Of course, the corporate side represents the bulk of Dell's PC sales, and here there are few signs that Dell is set to outperform - planned desktop (31%; down 1-pt) and laptop (32%; unchanged) purchases look flat to down in the latest survey.

Thus, our overall outlook for Dell going forward remains cautious. That uncertainty has recently been reflected by the company itself. Dell reported stronger earnings for the 1st Quarter, yet failed to provide any guidance for the 2nd Quarter and beyond.

Hewlett-Packard

The ChangeWave survey results also present a mixed U.S. picture for Hewlett-Packard (HPQ).

In an upbeat finding, U.S. consumer PC sales are improving going forward - with planned buying of desktops (20%; up 2-pts) and laptops (22%; up 3-pts) registering their first upticks in nearly a year.

On the downside, H-P looks weaker in terms of planned U.S. corporate desktop purchases (15%; down 2-pts), while plans for laptops (14%) remains unchanged.

We note that almost 70% of H-P's sales come from outside the U.S. - whereas our ChangeWave surveys focus primarily on the U.S. market. Nonetheless, with both a sluggish U.S. market and mixed findings for H-P, our outlook remains cautious.

Bottom Line: The current ChangeWave survey results point to one winner in the midst of an overall weaker U.S. personal computer market: Apple.

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Related ChangeWave PC Findings
--PC Spending Heads South (3/25/08)
--Dell Disappoints - Yet Again (3/2/08)
--Survey Shows Explosive Apple Mac Sales... (1/22/08)

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