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Michael Shulman

Michael Shulman is the editor of the ChangeWave Biotech Investor, a newsletter advisory service that follows life sciences and biotech stocks. He is also the editor of ChangeWave Shorts, a newsletter advisory service that helps individual investors make money on the short side of the market.

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Sink Your Teeth Into Food Stocks With Options

May 16, 2008

By Michael Shulman, Editor, ChangeWave Shorts

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I have two teenage twin boys, so no one understands the impact inflation is having on food costs more than my wife and I — tax rebates went to buy groceries for the month. And the only one this recession will benefit is my cockapoo, Sumo, who could stand to go on a “recession diet,” anyway!

In all seriousness though, rising inflation added to recessionary rumblings creates a simple equation that our ChangeWave Alliance survey data have confirmed: With more people using credit cards to pay for gasoline and food while credit-card and home-equity-line defaults are increasing rapidly, retailers are reducing forecasts across the board, and increasing numbers of restaurant chains report that they are seeing their most-difficult business conditions ever that the stimulus package won't do much to ease.

This is not the time to be in a business dependent upon discretionary income, and the stock market offers a veritable buffet of profit opportunities in those that are coming up cold — but only if you know which put options to buy. And using your discretionary income — we call it using your Vegas money — to trade options on breaking-down companies and sectors can be the easiest way to make back the money you spend — and much more!

I've joked that my buy list of put option positions in ChangeWave Shorts was starting to look like the makings of a coffee klatch after I recently recommended playing the short side of one of the world’s top coffee sellers and a restaurant known for its desserts.

Those recommendations, and several others that are plays on reduced consumer spending and recession pullbacks, were based upon ChangeWave Alliance survey results that showed me how restaurants — particularly those in the moderate-to-expensive range — are going to get a big bite taken out of their business. (Click here to join us and get my full Buy List of profit opportunities!)

Additionally, diners are practicing what is known as “check management,” which means cutting back on high-margin items, such as alcohol.

When the ChangeWave Alliance recently asked folks about spending at moderately expensive restaurants in a benchmark survey, several stock market names showed up in the survey with results that were hardly appetizing, including Benihana (BNHN), Landry’s Restaurants (LNY) Rainforest Café and a host of privately held firms around the country including Hard Rock Café, Lone Star Steakhouse and Joe's Crab Shack.

Extrapolating trends and specific companies and sectors from our survey results underscore our true focus at ChangeWaveShorts: capitalizing on rotting fundamentals, by trading options as low-cost/low-risk ways to capitalize on those trends and forecasts.

In the case of the emptying-restaurant phenomenon, the math is simple. Without customers, the sales, earnings and revenue numbers won’t be there for restaurateurs, plain and simple — that's Investing 101, and those of us who are buying puts on restaurants where fewer customers are spending less money are getting an A-plus!

It’s a hard dish to swallow for many who hold restaurant and food-related stocks long. But for us on the short side, finding companies like these and gobbling up profits as their values go down tastes oh-so-sweet.

If you’d like to raise your glass to big profits, join Michael Shulman’s ChangeWave Shorts today to begin profiting and get your just desserts! You don’t need to wait for stocks to rise to bank profit, and Michael shows you how to play sliding sectors with less risk. Click here for your very own RISK-FREE trial subscription!