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5 Dead-End Retail Stocks to Short

August 18, 2009

By Michael Shulman, Editor, ChangeWave Shorts

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Michael Shulman

Michael Shulman

Michael Shulman is the editor of ChangeWave Shorts, a newsletter advisory service that helps individual investors make money on the short side of the market.

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Recent retail sales data shows the American consumer is broke. That means high-end retail stocks are a dead end for investors.

Instead, focus on high-end retailers and providers of consumer goods and services that are most likely to have a bad holiday season and will no longer be able to cut costs to generate profits.

Here are five retail stocks to short through the purchase of put options.

Retail Stock #1: Macy's (M)

Macy's (M) has a terrible balance sheet compared to its peers, too much high-end merchandise that's not selling and locations in the wrong malls — all of which combine to make it a very weak retailer.

Not to mention the company and its stock have a ridiculous valuation if you believe the holiday shopping season and most of 2010 will be a bust.

Buy put options on M.

Learn why put options are the best way to short a stock.

Retail Stock #2: Tiffany & Co. (TIF)

My wife loves that robin's egg blue box, but there are going to be fewer of those under our Christmas tree this year, and I suspect that will be the case in many homes.

Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is well-managed and isn't going under, but sales will continue to fall, especially in Asia and the flagship New York store — Wall Street is broke and tourists are staying home).

Buy put options on TIF.

Retail Stock #3: Nordstrom (JWN)

Nordstrom (JWN) is a great retailer with empty stores, at least where I live. The company has been too slow to adjust merchandise and pricing and is far too dependent on clothing for sales and profits.

Buy put options on JWN.