In 2008 our average closed position at ChangeWave Shorts gained 50%. And while that's certainly a good thing, it's more important right now to know what we can expect in 2009.

The answer is that, basically, 2009 will start out quietly and then there will be growing uncertainty, thanks to the unwarranted, but strong, expectations that President-elect Obama has a magic hat from which he'll be able to pull something.

But even now, the daily headlines are unremittingly negative — Toyota has its first loss in 70 years, churches are going bankrupt, towns are going bankrupt, commercial developers are seeking bailout money and so on.

In fact, things will get far tougher in the United States and abroad than Wall Street believes, and that will be especially true for consumer spending and corporate earnings.

But by maintaining our focus on the fundamentals of the economy and individual companies, we can clearly see and understand the harsh realities that 2009 will bring. And that gives us a great shot at another year of 50%-plus gains on the recommendations you get here in ChangeWave Shorts.

We've had indifferent trading, light volume and reduced volatility, and this situation will continue into the new year — even as the bulls and bears debate what trading will look like in early 2009. (See also: "5 Rules for Bear Market Investing.")

The bulls say the rally will continue, at least, through the passage of the stimulus package and the Obama inauguration. The bears say the Street will sell-off — despite the anticipation over the passage of the stimulus package and the impending inauguration — because of the weak corporate earnings.

I'm inclined to think the market will sell-off modestly, as it has at other times this year, before major news or events.

Either way, I see a weak Q1 for the market and a return to the underlying fundamentals of companies and stocks — and that's good news for us on the short side.

Looking Ahead in 2009

Here are some predictions and headlines we'll likely see in the coming year…