I'm the proud dad of two teenage twin boys, and one of the lessons I've imparted to them is not to gloat when they are right.

However, I've also instructed them not to forget when they're right, either. I think that's how they gain confidence that grows with good decisions to make better decisions in the future.

So, given the success my ChangeWave Shorts subscribers and I have had lately, I'm trying not to gloat.

I can say this, though: When I first recommended getting on the short side of homebuilders' in February 2007, it sure didn't feel like I was right, as we watched the market call one false bottom after another. But the fundamentals don't lie, and all of the false bottoms (which are still rolling in) tell me the market just doesn't get it. (See also: "You Can Make Money on the Failing Financials.")

Maybe the news that construction of new homes plunged in October to the lowest levels in five decades will make it clear.

But, given news like that, it's not surprising that a good deal of our short-side profits have come from my core belief that housing is at the epicenter of the ongoing recession in consumer spending and the many credit problems going forward. Profits like:

• 100% and 112% in puts for homebuilding supplier Masco (MAS)
• 60% in puts for homebuilder Hovnanian (HOV)
• 138% in puts homebuilder Beazer Homes (BZH)
• 103% in puts for homebuilder Pulte Homes (PHM)

And those are just since October. They don't even count the…