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Meet the Expert

Ken Trester

As the nation's foremost professional options trader, Ken Trester has a winning streak that goes all the way back to 1985 and money-doubling average annual profits since 1990.

In fact, very few people that give trading advice today have Ken Trester's experience and proven track record. He puts his money where his mouth is and actively trades his own account each day as part of his popular Maximum Options and Fast Options Profits services. Ken is widely quoted in Barron's and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities.

More about this Expert

Options

Market Mania Is the New "Normal"

February 13, 2008

By Ken Trester, Editor, Fast Options Profits

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Which is the bigger surprise: the Fed's half-point rate cut or that Britney Spears once again being released from a mental hospital? Which is the bigger story? Which is more important? The answer is, of course, obvious: They are both about the same as far as the media is concerned.

How so much time, ink and airtime can be dedicated to these two stories is quite simply beyond me. Both events were givens. The market reacted predictably—for once—dropping like a rock after the last interest-rate cut was announced.

Recently, I sat in front of my 50-inch Panasonic, sipping coffee and listening to one financial guru after another offer contradictory advice.

"The market is seeking a bottom," said one.

"The major news magazines are predicting recession, so the recession must already be here," one commentator suggested, using the old contrary indicator.

"Values are at a 200-year low," said another.

"Blah, blah, blah," said several more.

Look, when the rubber meets the road, all you want to know is one thing: Are you or are you not making money? That's why for options traders, it doesn't matter whether the market is going up or if it is going down. Either way (if you play your options right…) we're gonna make money! Here are a few tips you'll want to use along the way.

The Options Indicator That Never Lets Me Down

Believe it or not, our indicators at Fast Options Profits are giving neutral to slightly bullish readings. Short-term internal indicators are saying that the current rally still has some room to run. Specifically, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has only descended about halfway down from the 30-plus reading it gave at the height of the recent selling frenzy. When it falls to below 20, it's a positive sign that most of the mania has left the market (which of course is when things will most likely go haywire again, but I digress…)

This indicator has proven to be very effective for Fast Options Profitsover the past year, one which has been marked by increasing volatility. I've found that readings of around 30 mark the "all clear" sign for short-term bullish trades.

Let me quickly explain why this indicator has never led me astray:

The VIX was below 20 last Christmas Eve, a day on which the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained more than 300 points. The next trading day the Industrials began a plunge that would carry the index more than 11% lower in less than a month. By the time the sell-off ran its course on January 22, the VIX was again above 30. Since that point, the DJIA has recovered more than 5%, and the VIX has fallen to about 25. The DJIA still has chart room to run up to its 200-day moving average at 13,100, where it will encounter resistance. By then, volatility will have likely returned to around 20, a dangerous level in recent market history. At that point, we would expect renewed selling pressure that could eventually take stocks back down to test their recent lows.

The #1 Rule of Options Trading: Don't Plunge

One of the biggest error novice players make is that they overdose on greed and put too much money into the market at one time. Far too many traders lose patience and jump on what they think is a "slam dunk" with all of their money, only to watch their options waste away and money disappear. Don't be one of them.

First, draw up a game plan with which you spread your purchases over several months or more. Diversify with several positions and try to hold both bullish and bearish positions at the same time. No one (including me) really knows what the market is going to do tomorrow. The market was up last week and for no good reason was down this week—so having money on both sides is a great way to hedge against these sudden almost daily reversals.

Our winning strategy at Fast Options Profits is working because we chalked up one more profitable trade this week as we are taking the rest of our 54% profit in one of our technologies puts (to find out what we traded click here). That's our ninth winning trade just since the New Year (we've been averaging nearly two a week). Nice work, if I do say so myself.

The most important factors of success are patience and only playing with money you can afford to lose. The options market is open every business day of the year. If you can't place a good trade today, don't rush it—there's always tomorrow. At Fast Options Profits, we recommend multiple trades each week, and that should be enough for almost any trader.

Free up your investing capital and your peace of mind with a trial subscription to Ken Trester's options trading service, Fast Options Profits. With two trade recommendations every week that you can get into for less than $2 apiece, he aims to take the stress and the guesswork out of options trading. Click here to start your risk-free trial!