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Active Trading

Market Heavily Oversold and Near My Buy Target

October 8, 2008

By Jon Markman, Editor, Trader's Advantage

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Jon Markman

Jon Markman

Jon Markman, a veteran money manager and award-winning journalist, is editor and founder of the investment research newsletter Trader's Advantage. A pioneer in the development of stock-rating systems and screening software, Markman is a co-inventor on two Microsoft patents and author of the best-selling books "Swing Trading" and "Online Investing."

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The percent of NYSE stocks above their 10-day moving averages was 0.9% on Tuesday, a new record low. The reading was 1.8% for the Nasdaq, which was also a record. More over we have the CBOE Volatility Index in the mid-50s, an Arms Index at 3 and the McClellan Oscillator below 300. Every sector was down, every market cap cohort was down, and every region of the world was down.

A trifecta of market misery like this could only occur amid an environment of total global deleveraging, and that is what we continue to witness. I heard tonight from my sources in Tokyo and London that hedge funds, banks and individuals continue to unload assets that they bought with yen carry trade money as their creditors demand new collateral to back up margin.

Ultimately this conflagration of capital will end when there is no more fuel—i.e., when the collateral has run out, and funds are wiped out. At that point, their creditors will be in extreme danger too, since they will be on the hook to their own lenders, and that is why we call it a crisis. This is no time for sissies or babies.

The Mellon Solution

Like most things in finance, this is not exactly new. It just happens so infrequently that most people who lived through it once are not around to witness it again.

The last example occurred during the Great Depression, and you'd be amazed at the number of similarities to today's experiences. Derivatives expert Satyajit Das of Australia sent me a clip of a comment made by Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon in 1931 to President Herbert Hoover that is quite appropriate.

Hoover—who was one of our most intelligent presidents and, contrary to popular belief today, actually worked his tail off to figure out how to right the economy during the Depression—got this advice from his in-house industrialist: "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people."

Hoover was not in office long enough to see that guidance work out, as Franklin Delano Roosevelt took over two years later and ultimately got credit for turning the country around. But the concept of purging rottenness out of the system—by which he meant, in part, extreme levels of credit—is what we are seeing occur right before our eyes today.

Credit Tightening

The money market industry is dying…