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Why Frugality Will Hurt the Economy in 2009

January 5, 2009

By Jon Markman, Editor, Trader's Advantage

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Jon Markman

Jon Markman

Jon Markman, a veteran money manager and award-winning journalist, is editor and founder of the investment research newsletter Trader's Advantage. A pioneer in the development of stock-rating systems and screening software, Markman is a co-inventor on two Microsoft patents and author of the best-selling books "Swing Trading" and "Online Investing."

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Nordstrom (JWN), organic grocery Whole Foods (WFMI) and art auction house Sotheby's (BID) have been among the hardest hit in the past two years, though they are just starting to lift now. On any sign that the rich can make a comeback, we would love to own these three, so let's keep a close eye on their progress.

Accompanying these financial realities will be a continued mentality shift away from ostentatious displays of wealth and frivolity towards non-material goods like more time with the family, volunteer work, membership at places of worship and the like.

This is perhaps where one can find silver lining this holiday season. A study of 274 families in San Francisco found that over a 10 year period changes in income didn't affect reported happiness. We can hope that closer bonds with one's family and community can help make our society stronger during this time of turmoil.

Focus on Credit

All year we have repeated the mantra that the bear market has been lead by a decline in credit, and it will only end when an appetite for distressed credit returns. So when will investors star to buy speculative credit again in anticipation of better times to come?

Well, consider that equities are entering the new year priced for recession while bonds and loans are priced for depression nearly as deep as the 1930s. It's hard to tell whether the credit market really thinks the default rate will get that high or there's simply not enough buyers right now due to the exit of so many hedge funds from the scene as well as the decline in leverage ratios.

I will stick to my guns, though, with the contention that the equity market won't bounce back until the market for distressed credit — which is by far the majority now — improves. Our play on corporate credit so far has been a lot more conservative: I have recommnended buying the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (LQD), which has offered both capital appreciation and a fat 6.5% annual dividend.

To see more ideas like this, check out my Trader's Advantage newsletter.

This article was written by Jon Markman, contributor to InvestorPlace Media. For more actionable insights likes this, visit www.InvestorPlace.com.