John Lansing
John Lansing is a longtime professional technical analyst, trader and founder of Trending123. John spends countless hours tracking all of the stock market sectors and sub-sectors to find winning trades for investors like you.

John Lansing
John Lansing is a longtime professional technical analyst, trader and founder of Trending123. John spends countless hours tracking all of the stock market sectors and sub-sectors to find winning trades for investors like you.
The Worst Recession That Never WasFebruary 14, 2008 By John Lansing, Editor, Trending123 |
I'll admit, we've just been through a brutal Wave 4 correction, and people are panicked. Recession though? The Dow Jones is almost double its value on the Dot.com lows. In the course of the current correction, it hasn't even broken the uptrend line. Volatility has skyrocketed based on fear of something that hasn't happened. People are panicking about the worst recession that never was. Even a major correction does not automatically mean a recession has arrived. Neither does a recession mean that stocks can't complete a correction within it. Pundits are announcing the end of the secular bull market. Wrong! What we are seeing is a cyclical correction within the secular Bull.
Last year I said we were heading for NASDAQ 3126 by May of 2008. I see no reason to change that view. Wondering why? The 3100s on the $COMPQ represents a 50% retracement from the Dot.com bubble lows. Technical analysis stats tell us there that more than 90% of the time there will be at least a 50% retracement from the lows. I love those odds! That's why I urge you not to panic on down days in this volatile market. Now is the best time to be in the market, not the best time to be in cash. Holding the right stocks now is about as dangerous as falling off the floor, and NASDAQ 3126 is still hundreds of points away.
A famous pundit, last October, urged everyone to "close their eyes and Buy the highs." (See Cramer perform on my Blog) While others encouraged, "buy the highs", I issued a "Brutal Correction" update, preceded and followed by updates encouraging subscribers to lighten up portfolios with the phrase, "He who holds the fewest stocks when the Wave 4 correction arrives wins." Although the correction has lasted longer than I anticipated, sentiment indicators show we are finally heading up.
The NASDAQ New High/Low Index ($RHCOMPQ) is a reliable sentiment indicator of major market turning points. It hit all-time lows of 16.10 on February 8, 2008. The last time lows were even close to this level was in 2002, at the Dot.com bubble lows. We have hit unprecedented, historic levels of pessimism in the market. That tells me we're going up from here!
The NASDAQ Volatility Index ($VXN), which, during the Dot.com bubble, had a floor and major support at around 40, now has a ceiling, and major resistance around 40. It hasn't and won't break through that resistance, so, short-term, long-term, left-term, right-term, or any other term applicable, the market is going up!
Extremes in the put/call ratio are significant sentiment indicators. The put/call ratio hit an all-time high near the August/07 low, which it again tagged in January/08. The ratio remains high, again, indicating a bottom. We're going up!
A secular bear is marked by a flight of capital to "defensive" stocks, such as the pharmaceuticals ($DRG). So what's the deal with the pharmaceuticals hitting 3-year lows? Money is flowing back into the market as sectors such as transport, banking, and Internet providers explode. The deal is that there is no recession. Despite their best efforts, Wall Street and CNN won't panic U.S. Business into one!
The inverted yield curve on the 3-month U.S. treasury yield/10-Year U.S. treasury yield ratio, which, traditionally, has heralded a recession, is no longer inverted. It's steepening. That means increased profitability for the financial sector and more money flow into the markets. The yield curve chart shows a huge reverse symmetrical triangle heading into a Wave 5 up. Yes, people—the market is going up!
After reporting earnings, many stocks in my Trending 123 portfolio have skyrocketed. In fact, most have beat earnings expectations, many are raising guidance, and none has reported bad earnings.
This may be the best opportunity we've ever had as this market starts to ROCK! Join me Trending123 today and stay on top of this incredible (and incredibly profitable) market!