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When the Cabbie Says Buy... It's Time to Sell!

May 13, 2008

By Jamie Dlugosch, Editor, InvestorPlace

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Jamie Dlugosch

Jamie Dlugosch

Jamie Dlugosch is the founder and editor of the top-rated The Rational Investor. He has over 20 years of experience in financial markets including investment banking, equity analysis and research and money management.

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a trade against the U.S. dollar.

Well, he may have a point, but it would appear to me that he is a day late and possibly a dollar short.

A Day Late and a Dollar Short

The Federal Reserve appears to be finished with the weak dollar policy of interest rate cuts.  In its place may be rate increases needed to fight inflation.  If so, the dollar could be strengthening across multiple currencies including the Thai baht.

What was conspicuously absent from my cabbie was any mention of stocks.

Does the absence of enthusiasm for stocks suggest bullish times ahead?  I think it does.

In fact, it has been that way for some time.  The sheep are tired of losing money in the market and they appear to be a defeated herd. Gone are the days of easy money made during the dot com craze.

In its place is a world that Warren Buffett describes as underwhelming at best from a performance standpoint.  Such a conservative outlook combined with a lack of interest from the sheep, may in fact be an important signal for the market.

I would be looking long and hard at stocks to buy at the moment.

Richard Young, in his Intelligence Report, has a list of several stocks to buy now.  I think even my cabbie would be impressed with this list.

One intriguing name on the list that captured my attention is General Electric (GE).  GE has been having a tough go of it for the last several years.  Even worse, the company recently missed expectations, something that has rarely, if ever, occurred.

Fueling the growth for GE will be places like China.  I for one take note of the recent announcement that China will be building its own aircraft manufacturing company.  GE has done an excellent job of penetrating this important market.

Will it be a driver for future growth?  I think so.  Certainly it is worth a look!

What is not worth a look is to bet against the dollar like my cabbie suggested.  He was a nice guy and well intentioned, but he needs to stick to doing what he does best–driving a cab–not making investment recommendations!

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