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Weekly Credit Market News

January 5, 2009

By Jamie Dlugosch, Editor, InvestorPlace

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Jamie Dlugosch

Jamie Dlugosch

Jamie Dlugosch is the founder and editor of the top-rated The Rational Investor. He has over 20 years of experience in financial markets including investment banking, equity analysis and research and money management.

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The relatively sparse economic news of this past week did little to ease investor concerns. Reports on initial jobless claims and consumer confidence confirmed that the recession is not likely to end early in 2009.

Consumer Confidence for the month dropped to its all time lowest level. The index fell to 38, considerably below the analysts' consensus of 45.5 and also well below the prior period report of 44.7.

Sub-index numbers were also starkly lower. Consumers' assessment of their current situation fell to 29.4 from the previous 42.3 and the expectation index declined to 43.8 from 46.2. Both indices were at their lowest since 1991, and approached their all-time low reached in 1982.

It is likely that the consumer sentiments reflected in these numbers will be reflected in the coming week's reports of holiday related retail sales.

Initial jobless claims for the week were reported to have significantly declined from the previous week. Initial claims came in at 492,000 versus an expectation of 560,000 and considerably lower than the prior week's report of 586,000 new claims.

While market participants looking for any glimmer of hope took solace in this number, the number of workers with continuing claims rose to 4.506 million up from 4.366 million the previous week. This figure is also the highest since November of 1992. Analysts believe that the lower initial claims number resulted from the short holiday week with many newly unemployed unable to file due to the shortened week.

Also of interest to consumers was the report that home prices have declined 18% from 12 months ago. It remains to be seen if this drop along with the massive infusion of cash into the system by the Federal Reserve will stimulate home buying, as many believe there are still steep declines to come.

The week had a relatively low volume of activity in the debt and equities markets, both of which experienced modest changes. The stock exchanges rose moderately during the week, while the treasury market declined slightly.

Yields on the benchmark treasuries, which move inversely to price, rose above the historically low levels reached early in the week. The 10 year treasury closed Wednesday at 2.25%, and the 30 year closed at 2.69 %. The 10 year closed the previous week at 2.16% and the 30 year at 2.61%.

Key reports being released the coming week are as follows:

Release Consensus Prior
Construction Spending -1.2% -1.2%
Factory Orders -2.6% -5.1%
Consumer Credit $0.5B $-3.5B
Average Work Week   33.5 33.5
Non-farm Payrolls -475K -333K
Unemployment Rate     7% 6.7%

This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com. James F. Dlugosch contributed to this article.