100 barrels of crude sitting on his doorstep! Of course that won’t happen, but what will happen, is Joe Blow will be forced to sell his contract at a big loss (for those of you looking for a commodities 101 refresher course, you'll want to read "Commodities: Your Guide to Profiting Smartly").

By my estimation, oil has about $60–$80 of such excess priced into the market at the moment, and by all accounts, that number is expected to grow over the next several months as more suckers are found.

Hedge funds dominate the trade currently, but mutual funds led by the all powerful oil exchange-traded funds are buyers as well.  Fast on their heels are the individual investors who are dreaming of easy money. There is no such thing, and this dream will come crashing down at some point.  My best guess is that the end will draw near sometime after the election.

For now, an Iranian surprise or some other going out with a bang Bush led Middle East excursion could push oil prices beyond the $150 mark. At a minimum, there are more suckers out there that will be the buyers for those at the top of the pyramid. My advice: Don’t get suckered into this losing bet. Instead, take a look at Richard Young’s Intelligence Report.  His subscribers will find plenty of Rational ideas that don’t depend on pyramids … or suckers!

Stop burning a hole in your portfolio with overpriced oil plays. Sign up for your risk-free trial subscription to Richard Young's Intelligence Report and he'll show you which top producers are raking it in for his Intelligence Report subscribers!