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Jamie Dlugosch

Jamie Dlugosch is the founder and editor of the top-rated The Rational Investor. He has over 20 years of experience in financial markets including investment banking, equity analysis and research and money management.

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The Doctor Is In: Your Midyear Portfolio Checkup

June 17, 2008

By Jamie Dlugosch, Editor, InvestorPlace

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If you are long on oil, commodities or precious metals, your portfolio has enjoyed huge gains so far in the 2008 U.S. stock market. Congratulations.

If you are long on stocks, you are losing money across the board.  Large cap stocks are down.  Small-cap stocks are down.  Technology stocks are down.  Financial stocks are crushed.  Retail stocks are pummeled. Even worse, with inflation, you are even further behind than during periods of stable prices.  It has been a trying period, but frankly it could be much, much worse.

The stock indexes, despite all of the negative headlines, are all trading higher since reaching the lows in March.  Those stock market gains have brought the averages to just single-digit losses for the year.

Unfortunately, the levee may break (see, "You Still Need Stocks Just Not the Headaches.")

U.S. stocks had a nice run in April and May but met very strong resistance at the S&P 500, 1,400 level.  Now, with oil pushing $150 per barrel, stocks have retreated once again.  The crosscurrents in the market have investors rightfully perplexed.

The Federal Reserve is signaling that rate hikes may be forthcoming in order to deal with presumed inflationary pressures.  Most companies are resigned to slow growth and dwindling profit margins. The doom and gloom crowd must be very pleased at the moment.

Indeed, the future looks bleak, but if you are a contrarian investor, you know that from such darkness comes light. There are opportunities in this market that investors can exploit.

Here are a few ideas that I think will help you beat the market over the remainder of the year:

Oil Stocks

The oil run is done. As I have stated previously, the oil run is beyond comprehension (see, "The Oil Stock Pyramid Scheme.") Only those that can remain asleep when doused with ice cold water will deny that the oil market is in the grip of a speculative bubble.

All of the nonsense about tight supplies and rising demand ignores the reality of a slowing world economy. Evidence of demand destruction is abundant, but the speculators don’t care.  Why should they when they get rewarded for behavior that has little to do with reality.  Those who fail to remember the past are doomed to repeat it.

That being said, I fully expect oil to...