Flash forward to today, and we appear to be experiencing a similar type of environment.  The market rallied aggressively off its lows and is now building a strong base around the S&P 500 1,400 level.

The prediction machine is now in full swing.  Will we retest the lows or are we building a base for a new bull rally?

Who cares!

The market is going to do what it is going to do, and timing does not work.  Typically staying invested regardless of conditions is a winning strategy for the long term. Going further, applying a buy and hold strategy with mutual funds makes even more sense.

Dan Weiner's Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors is a great tool for doing so.

One benefit of mutual funds is that if you do insist on attempting to time the market, you can do so by tweaking your allocations to different funds.  This is a far better approach than simply timing the exact top or bottom of a market.

Industry dynamics can and do change, so it does make sense to adjust from time to time.  Just don't go crazy is all I ask, and keep those changes to a minimum.

One change being made in Dan's portfolio is a reduction in holdings in the health care space.  The election is fast approaching, and with new politicians on the scene, changes may be apace.

Properly valuing those changes will be difficult at best, hence the reduction in that position.

There are more suggestions that Dan has for his subscribers, but I can't give away all of his secrets.  You will have to check it out for yourself.

The lesson today is don't time the market.  It just can't be done.

For over 17 years, independent Vanguard "watchdog" Dan Wiener has been telling subscribers to his Independent Adviser which underperforming, poorly run, undiversified or tax-inefficient funds to avoid AND giving them the best Vanguard investments for their money. In fact, the recommendations in his Growth Portfolio earn a 144% advantage over the typical Vanguard investor! Don't miss the chance to gain this competitive advantage for your portfolio. Click here to accept a risk-free trial to The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors today.