Investor Place

Red Stocks Blue Stocks

August 5, 2008

By Jamie Dlugosch, Contributing Editor, InvestorPlace

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Jamie Dlugosch

Jamie Dlugosch

Jamie is the editor of Penny Stock Winners. He has over 20 years of experience in financial markets including investment banking, equity analysis and research and money management. In addition to being the Editor of Penny Stock Winners, he is also a Contributing Editor of InvestorPlace.com and founder and editor of The Rational Investor.

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Was Dr. Seuss a stock and political pundit when he wrote, "Some are red. Some are blue. Some are old and some are new. Some are sad and some are glad. And some are very, very bad?"

That sums it up pretty nicely if you ask me. We have some serious choices to make during this election season, and the outcome will impact portfolios in a big way. It is best we be prepared.

The general assumption is that Republicans are good for the economy and Democrats are bad, but is that really true? Frankly, there is more to the story in that some sectors will do well under either administration and vice versa.

Recently, I wrote that the market was decreasing in value in June, not because of inflation, but because of anticipation of an Obama presidency combined with a Democratic-run Congress (see, "Election Season: A Great Time to Sell Stocks").

With Obama taking the nomination from his party and a lead in the early polls over McCain, the market could now focus on what an Obama presidency would mean for stocks and the economy in general.

Of course the initial knee-jerk reaction followed form, sending stocks lower in anticipation of implementation of many of Obama’s proposals.

Stock Market Sell-Off

I suggested that we can expect a sell-off of stocks as investors would prefer to pay a lower capital gains tax instead of the higher rate that Obama is proposing. Indeed, the market seemed to be anticipating such a move irrespective of the headline crisis in banking space.

That being said, what about the long term? Is it possible that an Obama presidency sets the stage of a significant rally? (Also read, "How to Keep This Rally Going.")

I think a good case can be made for that outcome. At the core of an Obama administration is a leveling of the playing field. For many of the last 8 years, the advantage has been to the large multinational companies.

We have a lot to gain by providing incentives for small businesses, and from what I can tell Obama seems to be in favor of doing that. Lowering health care costs for example may be one way to help small businesses reduce expenses thereby increasing profits.

The takeaway, then, would be for investors to look at owning small-cap stocks if Obama wins the White House. Doing so now makes sense anyway in that ...