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Is Citigroup (C) Strong Enough to Survive? |
October 16, 2008 By Jamie Dlugosch, Contributing Editor, InvestorPlace |


Jamie Dlugosch
Jamie is the editor of Penny Stock Winners. He has over 20 years of experience in financial markets including investment banking, equity analysis and research and money management. In addition to being the Editor of Penny Stock Winners, he is also a Contributing Editor of InvestorPlace.com and founder and editor of The Rational Investor.
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Well, not so fast. It does matter to common holders—especially if the forthcoming recession is long and deep. During a conference call with investors, Citigroup warned of negative consequences if the unemployment rate goes above 6% combined with a slowing economy.
I have news for you. Those conditions are here, and I would listen to the company when they say that consequences will be negative.
How negative?
First, I would expect credit card delinquencies to start having an impact on the company's results. Second, home mortgage defaults would continue to be weak. There is simply no easy way out of this mess.
Time is what it will take to survive, and fortunately C is one of the chosen ones. That being said, further losses and additional needs for capital may result in the government requesting more ownership at the expense of current common holders.
At the moment it would not appear that Citigroup is expecting such a fate. In order to take advantage of weakness in the market, the company is actively pursuing acquisitions.
They were in the running for both Washington Mutual and Wachovia. Rumors have it that they are interested or looking at National City (NCC). Does that mean management sees brighter days ahead? (See also: "Super-Intense Stock Plunge May Bring Opportunity.")
Nope. I would only interpret these statements as bold representation of strength that may or may not be there. It looks like a bluff to me if you want my honest opinion. Other investors feel the same way as C was down 2% today on the news.
Over the long haul, the government protection is a strong reason for owning the stock. Once the skies do clear, C should be one of those left standing.
This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com and check out:
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