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Finding the Stock Market Bottom

July 16, 2008

By Jamie Dlugosch, Editor, InvestorPlace

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Jamie Dlugosch

Jamie Dlugosch

Jamie Dlugosch is the founder and editor of the top-rated The Rational Investor. He has over 20 years of experience in financial markets including investment banking, equity analysis and research and money management.

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gain. The one thing that could always be counted on was an improvement in quality of life. As I mentioned above, that is not necessarily so today, and that fact alone is why this market is acting so stubbornly bearish (see also, "You Still Need Stocks, Just Not the Headaches!")

Time for a Rally

Like others on a day after a major bank failure and government intervention with respect to Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), I expected the market to rally hard (see also, "Fannie Finally Gets Off Its Fanny?"

If there were ever a time to say oversold or the stock market was due for a rally this is it. We have a major negative event combined with a level of selling that would seem to indicate capitulation. In fact, earlier this month I delved into this topic in "Stock Market Capitulation."

Unless of course, the view on the Street is that too many people are calling for a stock market bottom for this to really be the bottom. Perhaps, but I am more troubled by the fear of the future permeating the market.

IndyMac, as badly managed as it is succumbed after a run on the bank. In the absence thereof IMB may have survived. In the wake of the IMB news, stories are now circulating of more bank failures. It really is a classic psychology run. Are we really that gullible? Will we all now run to the bank withdrawing our funds?

The market is telling us that we will. The entire banking sector is down another 6% as I write this piece. The carnage is devastating with a risk of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Hope Springs Eternal

Or will it be the beginning of a new day filled with new hope.

I'll take the latter. Despite the feeling that our generation has less chance of improving our lots in life, such a economic perception is overly pessimistic. Progress and improvements are for the most part guaranteed results of capitalism.

The last I checked, capitalism still ruled. That means we can expect progress and opportunity to continue just as it has over the last 100 years or more.

It may seem like we are having a tough go of it and we are, but this still pales in comparison to what my grandmother's generation endured.

I hate to say it, but I think Phil Gramm had it, right by saying there is way too much whining going on. I have faith that if this is not the bottom, we are very close.

There are way too many cheap stocks to buy and own for this to continue much longer.

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