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Big Lots' Big Earnings Surprise

August 27, 2008

By Jamie Dlugosch, Contributing Editor, InvestorPlace

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Jamie Dlugosch

Jamie Dlugosch

Jamie is the editor of Penny Stock Winners. He has over 20 years of experience in financial markets including investment banking, equity analysis and research and money management. In addition to being the Editor of Penny Stock Winners, he is also a Contributing Editor of InvestorPlace.com and founder and editor of The Rational Investor.

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owned shares of BIG for under $15 per share. Six months later shares traded for more than $30 per share. This was an amazing action for a discount retailer considering that the rest of the stock market was simply going south. With its earnings release, we have confirmation that the BIG model is right on track.

The stock will certainly go higher from here, correct? Not so fast.

Initially investors reacted favorably to the news in pre-market trading. But by the time the regular stock market opened the mood turned sour. As I write this, shares are down some 6%.

So what gives? We can start with the fact that the market is a forward-looking device that anticipates moves in advance of results. Essentially, investors discount that future to determine a price today. In other words, the results for BIG today have already been priced into the market.

Like a fire needing more wood to continue to burn, investors require more information so they can continue to buy. That's the case with BIG as the company surprised investors by raising the guidance. Clearly, something is amiss.

From my point of view, the market is anticipating a strong economic recovery in 2009 and 2010 and BIG's favorable headwinds may slowly disappear as the need for discounts and the availability of inventory dwindle simultaneously. If so, BIG may have trouble delivering positive results going forward.

So why not take some money off the table with these results? Locking in gains at a time when most stocks have declined is a wise investment strategy. The results for BIG would need to surprise us all with a much bigger margin to justify holding the stock for the long-term. We didn't see that and the market reacted accordingly. I would suggest you do the same.

This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, Editor, InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insights likes this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com.