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Avoid Armageddon with Exchange-Traded Funds! |
April 1, 2008 By Jamie Dlugosch, Editor, Investors Insights |


Jamie Dlugosch
Jamie Dlugosch is the founder and editor of the top-rated The Rational Investor. He has over 20 years of experience in financial markets including investment banking, equity analysis and research and money management.
A quick glance at the Vanguard Financials ETF chart shows shares exhibiting a double bottom. Technicians suggest that such a state is positive in that those wanting to sell have already done so.
There being less downside pressure implies future gains, or so goes the thinking. It is not a fail safe method for certain, but investors can and do take comfort when these circumstances are present.
The financial sector has led the way down here thus one can expect that it will be the financial sector that leads the way higher. The very fact that the market did not collapse during the Bear Stearns fiasco may be interpreted as a sign of a bottom.
In some ways we actually did have capitulation as the Dow index swung nearly 1,000 points the day of the bailout.
Falling consumer confidence is another good sign for the bulls. The Conference Board is now at a level not seen since the early 1970s. One would have expected the market to fall hard on the news.
It did not. All taken together, the ingredients may be in place for a sustained rally. At a minimum, there appears to be good indicators that a bottom has been put in place.
Or this could be the ultimate tease and dead cat bounce. Just in case, Middleton is being cautious with his approach. Let's just say he is dipping his toe in the water.
In either case, investors can take advantage of the save the system at any cost mentality. Armageddon has been avoided, and that may lead to prosperity down the road. Leading the way will be the financials.
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