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Sector Funds: Time to Buy Oil and Gold? |
June 13, 2008 By Dan Wiener, Editor, Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors |


Dan Wiener
Daniel P. Wiener is America's leading expert on investing in Vanguard mutual funds and is editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors, a monthly newsletter that keeps abreast of recent developments at Vanguard. The Adviser is a five-time winner of the Newsletter Publishers Foundation's Editorial Excellence Award.
After going through some of the data, I thought this might an opportune time to remind you a bit about volatility in sector funds. I'm sure some people are impressed that, with the market down 7.2% for the year through Wednesday, Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining is up 14.7%, for instance.
But here are a few stats: Just 17 trading days ago, the fund was up 24.5%. So, even though inflation fears have increased, this supposed store of value has lost almost 8%.
And does anyone remember when Vanguard Energy was down 15.1% for the year in late January, then was up 18.3% for the year in late May, and is now up 13.0%?
Good numbers, but incredible volatility. And that's what you have to be prepared for when you invest in specific sectors of the market. (It's now more difficult than ever to invest wisely with Vanguard. So before you get started, discover the "5 Biggest Mistakes Vanguard Investors are Making.")
Oil, obviously, is a big factor in both the pessimism on Wall Street, as on Main Street, these days. But, it's worth noting that as a percentage of household budgets, even at the current higher prices, Americans aren't spending as much today as they did in, say, 1981, when inflation was running rampant.
What's more interesting, in my view, is that oil appears to be decoupling from the centuries-old supply/demand equation that impacts its price, and becoming more of a financial instrument in terms of its use as an inflation hedge.
Rather than trading like a commodity, it is trading like a financial instrument with various investors using it for various purposes.
There's nothing in the supply/demand situation right now that would drive the price up so fast.
Supply hasn't decreased that quickly, nor has demand gone up that quickly.
In fact, demand at home is declining, and even the International Energy Agency says it may cut its global demand forecasts further than they already have.
Of course, high prices at the pump hurt demand, and for the first time, gasoline hit a national average of $4 per gallon over the past weekend.
But if the best The Wall Street Journal can do is to find an Iowa worker who says she's not going to drive the 15 miles each way from work to home and back on her lunch hour to play with her dogs (see page 1 of the June 9 issue), then where's the huge hardship?
I know it's out there, but this example is a simple waste of resources, and I really don't empathize with someone who was driving an extra 30 miles a day to play with her dogs at lunch.
So running to oil, gas and gold is not necessarily a solution or quick fix for your portfolio.
As I've said before, Vanguard has better funds to juice your returns with the best slices of the domestic and global markets. (For more, check out this video on sector funds.)
Learn more about Vanguard's best domestic and international sector funds by accepting a risk-free trial subscription to The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors today. Each and every issue is designed to help you get the most out of your Vanguard funds. In fact, since Dan Wiener started publishing his newsletter, his subscribers have beaten the performance of the average Vanguard investor by 144%! That’s 144% more home. 144% more car. It’s 144% more security. And 144% more life. Find out for yourself!


