Investor Place
New
logo
Sign up for our FREE Investment Newsletter today!
 
 

 

 

Email Address:

Meet the Expert

Dan Wiener

Daniel P. Wiener is America's leading expert on investing in Vanguard mutual funds and is editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors, a monthly newsletter that keeps abreast of recent developments at Vanguard. The Adviser is a five-time winner of the Newsletter Publishers Foundation's Editorial Excellence Award.

More about this Expert

Broker Center

Compare Brokers

Mutual Funds

Cash, Mr. Market & Your Portfolio

July 7, 2008

By Dan Wiener, Editor, Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors

Print this page

Peter Lynch, the famed stock-picker who ran Fidelity’s Magellan fund during one of its heydays, put it pretty succinctly when he said, "The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them."

On any given day, or even over a month or two, it may appear you and I are winning or losing against "the market." But when you look at what the "market" is doing, consider that your portfolio is not the market. And it shouldn't be.

Rather than simply tracking the market, I've led subscribers to The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors to earn much, much more than "Mr. Market" through disciplined diversification, focusing on strong managers with a host of complementary strategies.

To give you just a couple of numbers: Over the past 10 years through the end of June—years that included the bull-ending 1998 and 1999 years as well as the bear-clawing 2000 to 2002 years—my subscribers and I have earned a compounded annual return of 10.55% in our Growth Model Portfolio.

Total Stock Market Index earned measurably less—a lot less: 3.54%, or almost exactly one-third of the return on our Growth Model. And by the way, we earned that return with a bit less than market risk.

As you can see, through the market’s ups and downs, we’re actually grinding out yardage over time. (See also: "Vanguard’s Top Mutual Fund for Retirement" and "9 Simple Steps to Profiting at Vanguard.")

All of that yardage compounds to your benefit, as long as you don’t let fear grab you and send you into the arms of cash. Cash won’t even keep up with inflation, much less earn you any spending money with yields on even Vanguard’s best money fund at just 2.22%.

Sure, over the short term, earning even a tiny yield looks good relative to losing money, but you and I aren’t going to lose money forever.

Consider that the ISM Manufacturing index, for instance, changed the course of the stock market on Tuesday of last week, at least for a while.

The Wall Street Journal had reported in the morning paper that economists were expecting the index to drop from 49.6 in May to 48.0 in June. Instead, it popped higher to 50.2—not enough to turn the tide, but indicative of how wrong the economic forecasters can be, and why one doesn’t want to hitch their long-term investment fortunes to short-term market blips.

And when Thursday’s Service Sector number came out, markets went down, then back up.

Who can predict that?

Eventually, one of the many data points that Wall Street focuses on will cause the bears to retreat and the bulls to come back charging, but we just don’t know which one, nor when. What we do know is that it will happen.

Finally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Thursday’s shortened but still volatile trading session up over 73 points—after pundits predicted it would decline sharply as traders headed to their beach houses ahead of the long weekend. Shows you what they know!

So before you try to time the market and jump into cash consider this:

When the market turns, it will turn hard and fast. The naysayers will tell you it’s a "dead cat bounce" or a "sucker’s rally," and those who've been sitting on the sidelines will think twice and miss the rebound.

It’s happened before, and it will definitely happen again. Invest with me, and you can leave the naysayers behind.

Don’t wait for a green light amidst the pundits’ mixed signals. Beat the market now! The month is young, and the July issue of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors is available for immediate download. Read it online now by accepting a risk-free trial subscription. Click here to learn more.