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How to Make Impressive Profits Even When Earnings Disappoint

April 14, 2009

By Chris Johnson, Co-Editor, The Winning Edge

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Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson and Jon Lewis the co-editors of Winning Edge, a trading service designed to help you make options profits around corporate earnings and other market events.

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Although Alcoa's (AA) numbers typically kick off earnings season, you don't have to wait for its mid-January, April, July and October reports to position yourself for profits in earnings-related plays.

There's no time like the present to get started on doubling or even tripling your money by playing options on some of Wall Street's favorite (and least-favorite) stocks.

Every publicly held company has to report not only their performance during the past quarter, but they also typically provide outlooks for the following quarter and possibly the full year as well. (See also: "Options Often Safer Than Stocks.")

Even though earnings season is only acknowledged as a quarterly event, only two-thirds of the S&P 500 companies report during that time. One or more companies makes an announcement practically every trading day throughout the year, as sectors like the banks and retailers operate their fiscal years/quarters outside of the calendar year/quarter.

Schedule Your Portfolio for Options Profits

Earnings season is like a month-long Super Bowl Sunday that happens four times a year. No other market event offers more opportunities for traders to earn big bucks on companies' fiscal hits and misses during the past three months, as well as the effect on shares from all of that "other" data that means so much to Wall Street.

Even missing analysts' estimates by just 1 cent per share might sink an otherwise-great stock, while topping Wall Street's expectations by just a penny can make the same stock soar.

We're in a market where the reaction to news is actually more important than the news itself. Bottom line: It's not about whether a company beats earnings estimates; it's whether it beats the market's expectations.

And even though expectations overall aren't overly high, given the state of the economy and the elevated level of fear in the markets in general, my expectations for options traders to make some memorable profits remain solid.

As option traders, we have the advantage of playing stocks that are on their way up as well as those that are destined to take a tumble. With options, you can regularly turn a 20% stock move into 100% to 200% gains in just a matter of days. Remember, options serve as a surrogate for stocks, but you pay a lot less to control the underlying shares. (Want more great options trading advice? Check out: "Trade Options Without Loosing Your Shirt" and "9 Tips for Options Trading Success.")

And that makes earnings season twice as nice for us!

Are Wall Street's Expectations Realistic?

The composite analyst rating, which is available from many major financial Web sites, tracks the total number of analysts who designate a particular stock as a "Buy," "Hold" or "Sell."

Though the vast majority of ratings fall on the "Buy" side (something the industry is roundly criticized for)…