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Are Analysts Overly Ambitious About Q4 Earnings? |
December 30, 2008 By Chris Johnson, Co-Editor, The Winning Edge |


Chris Johnson
Chris Johnson and Jon Lewis the co-editors of Winning Edge, a trading service designed to help you make options profits around corporate earnings and other market events.
While many investors and analysts are talking about how corporate earnings — which kick off Jan. 12 with Alcoa's (AA) report — will likely reflect the weakness in the economy, the numbers continue to suggest that the market expects some good news.
And that, my friends, is bad news.
Are Analysts Overly Ambitious?
For example, we recently saw Research In Motion (RIMM) and Oracle (ORCL) report earnings numbers that appeared to outpace analysts' expectations. Despite this strength, though, both stocks failed to move higher.
Why? Because these expectations were already fully priced into the share prices.
That's the problem with higher expectations.
And it's a trend that's far from ending anytime soon, with the earnings season party commencing as soon as we put the away New Year's noisemakers.
Higher expectations often signal that the market has already priced a stock or sector to perform at peak perfection. This means that stocks are likely held to a higher standard when their earnings release hits the news wire, increasing the chance that investors will feel disappointed and, thus, more likely to sell.
And that's fantastic if you're playing these companies to the "short side" by buying put options, as I am and will be for the foreseeable future. But for value investors who are looking to pick up some post-holiday bargains in the stock market…


