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Are Analysts Overly Ambitious About Q4 Earnings?

December 30, 2008

By Chris Johnson, Co-Editor, The Winning Edge

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Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson and Jon Lewis the co-editors of Winning Edge, a trading service designed to help you make options profits around corporate earnings and other market events.

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The consumer staples sector sits atop the "high-expectations" category, with an expected 14% year-over-year earnings growth, according to Zacks.

Now, I'll concede that I've been bullish on consumer staples stocks as a defensive play. But one has to consider that 14% earnings growth would be tough to achieve in a good economy, let alone the one we're currently in.

We've all seen stories about consumers switching to lower-priced, store-branded products whenever possible to save money. For example, Kroger (KR) reported a 14% increase in its "Private Selections" house brand, as consumers move away from the more-familiar brand names.

Think of this as a move to a prettier generic compared to the black-and-white labels that gained popularity in the '70s.

Unfortunately, the move away from brand names will likely put pressure on traditional consumer staples brands, such as Procter & Gamble (PG) and others. That's something to keep in perspective as we approach the earnings season.

And I'd love to have you along for the ride so that I can share my trading ideas — and some actual trades — with you during the upcoming earnings season!

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With stocks moving unpredictably or, as we've seen, not at all, most investors won't be venturing near the stock markets for the foreseeable future.

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Right now, I'm tearing apart the major sectors and stocks, comparing each against their respective earnings expectations, technical activity, fundamentals and recent sentiment activity to narrow the search for earnings season out- and under-performers.

This season promises to be one of the more active and target-rich environments for investors, and I can't wait for it to start! And once you've signed up for my FREE daily newsletter Earnings Edge and see how to profit from earnings hits and misses, you'll understand why! Click here now to get started.