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Are Analysts Overly Ambitious About Q4 Earnings? |
December 30, 2008 By Chris Johnson, Co-Editor, The Winning Edge |


Chris Johnson
Chris Johnson and Jon Lewis the co-editors of Winning Edge, a trading service designed to help you make options profits around corporate earnings and other market events.
…they'll be crossing invisible lines of police tape that should be telling stock buyers to stay away — far away — from going long equities!
It's a Dead Zone, Mister
You know the Verizon (VZ) commercials that talk about the "dead zone?" Well, that's what we're facing on the earnings front — the lull before the earnings storm that doesn't start rolling until the first full week of January.
Only two companies of note reported last week, and one — Micron Technology (MU) — is a $2.50 stock. Remember back earlier this decade when MU traded above $90?
The other was Walgreen (WAG). Analysts scaled back their expectations for WAG, which has averaged earnings growth of about 8% during the past four quarters. The consensus estimate for Q1 was the same as last year, which is saying something for a retailer.
Earnings were mixed bag, with a 10.4% decline in net earnings but a 6.6% increase in sales (to a record $14.9 billion), thanks to a bump in prescription sales. But sentiment and the chart make WAG a tough trade.
The stock has been clinging to the $25 level for a couple of weeks, unable to move with the market in either direction. And while only 40% of covering analysts rate the stock a "Buy," the put/call ratio is scraping the bottom of its annual range.
It's tough to get a read with such a mixed picture, especially in a market that's zigging and zagging.
A Portfolio "Staple"
With earnings season ready to kick off in earnest, a few sectors continue to see higher expectations based on their respective year-over-year earnings growth estimates.


