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Economic Indicators: What You Need to Know

March 4, 2008

By Louis Navellier, Editor, Blue Chip Growth

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Louis Navellier

Louis Navellier

Louis Navellier is one of Wall Street's renowned growth investors. Investing for over 27 years, he has earned a national reputation as a savvy stock picker and portfolio manager. The New York Times called him "an icon among growth stock investors."

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Housing starts… unemployment rates… consumer confidence... what does it all mean? Believe it or not, leading economic indicators have a huge effect on the market, the economy, and most importantly, your portfolio!

In fact, knowing the ins and outs of some of the top economic indicators is one of the most profitable secret weapons on Wall Street.

Yes, the data can be complicated. But once Louis Navellier puts it in context, investors gain access to invaluable information made public each and every quarter!

Looking for new sectors for 2008? Then look no further than the 4th Quarter GDP.

Wondering if you'll be paying more in credit card interest? Then you'll want to read what the Fed has to say.

Ready to sell your Crocs stock and trade up to Timberlands? You may want to check this month's retail sales report.

Economic indicators are the best sources of insider information for long-term investors. Here's what they mean, what to expect when released, and how they can positively (or negatively) affect your portfolio.

"Fed" Meeting Announcements

Release Date: eight times a year in January, March, mid-May, June, early August, September, October and late December.


What Is It? The "Fed" as they are more commonly referred as, is the country's board of bankers and consists of the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board and five of the twelve Federal Reserve Bank presidents. This influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) controls what you can borrow and how much you're going to get charged in interest.

When they meet, they discuss one thing: how to control inflation by raising or lowering the Federal Funds Rate that serves as a benchmark for the interest that other banks, mortgage companies, credit cards and even Treasury Bills. After each FOMC meeting, the Fed releases an announcement regarding any potential changes to the Federal Funds Rate.

How It Affects Investors: On Wall Street, FOMC Meetings are considered one of the most influential events that can forecast a major market move.

Why? Higher interest rates make it more expensive for all of us–including major corporations–to borrow money. So, let's say you're the CEO of a business trying to expand by financing a new store or maybe by building another factory. Higher interest rates now make your financing more expensive, and you may not be able to expand your business as far as you once thought.

In today's business world, if companies can't expand and grow, offering their customers new products and services, they won't be able to make more money. And if they can't make more money, their bottom-line profits are affected directly, resulting in a lower stock price which in turn affects you, the investor.

Higher rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower rates are bullish. On Wednesday, October 31st, the Fed lowered the fed funds rate by one-quarter point, as expected, to 4.5%.

OK. This makes sense for the CEOs of the world. But how does the Fed affect the everyday consumer? Here's how: Let's say you just bought the home of your dreams with an Adjustable Rate Mortgage. When the Fed raises the Federal Funds Rate–even by half a percentage point–your next month's mortgage payment just got more expensive.

Of course, the reverse is also true: With the Fed cutting interest rates by one-quarter point like they did earlier this year, CEOs and consumers across the country can breathe a little easier until the next FOMC meeting anyway.

Consumer Price Index

Release Date: The second or third week of every month

Released By: Bureau of Labor Statistics

What is it?  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most widely followed indicator of inflation in the United States and serves as the benchmark inflation guide for the economy. Most of the other indicators derive their information from the CPI.

How It Affects Investors: Fixed-income investors, look out! The CPI data are known for moving the fixed-income markets on the day of the release. That's because CPI data are used to make adjustments to cash-flow investments like long-term insurance, pensions, and even Medicare benefits. Fixed-income investors should take special note of the CPI and its immediate effect on the rate of inflation.