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5 Reasons We’re Headed for a Year-End RallyDecember 14, 2007 By The Confident Investor |
I'm a big believer in rallies. When the Sox won the series I was shouting for joy. When Rocky knocked out Apollo Creed, I cried like a baby. So, as we wind down 2007, I'm going to hold out hope that the market will give us one last miracle bounce before we ring in 2008.
Come All Ye Faithful…
For those non-believers out there, I want you to ponder this: During the past 10 corrections (since 1980) where a recession did not occur, the market shot up an astounding 18% just 12 months later. And if you use the NASDAQ Composite index as a gauge, the market was up 38% in 12 months. Considering the loss investors felt in 2007, that's big money.
How can this be you ask?
When recessionary fears get overblown huge amounts of cash stashed on the sidelines always come roaring back. And that's what we're seeing right now. The markets are spring-loaded and the fuse is ready to be lit up light a Christmas tree.
When this switch is flipped, investors will see huge moves up in growth stocks—especially in technology, biotechnology and infrastructure, and massive rebounds in the overblown financial market.
Still not a believer? Here's 5 more reasons…
Reason #1: Record amounts of cash are being held in money market funds. We're talking about almost $4 trillion in cash when the total value of the U.S. stock market is less than $15 trillion. And we've gone from $2 trillion to $4 trillion in cash in the past 400 days.
Reason #2: Expectations and outlook for the economy are at four-year lows. This will make it easy to beat comparables next year. A piece of cake…
Reason #3: Banks are pricing in the absolute worst-case scenario. Do I need to say anything more here? I don't think so.
Reason #4: Hedge funds are down for the year. This means they won't get paid their 20% incentive fee, so they're going to be anxious to pull the trigger and buy safe stocks.
Reason #5: ‘Tis the season! The super-rich are shopping. The real smart money (princes, sovereign funds, etc.) have a list of equities in their hands, and they're starting to shop. Abu Dhabi's investment in this financial conglomerate is just one of the hundreds of examples we're going to see.
There's no place to go but up. So take advantage of the bottom of this correction because these are the times when you can make the most money in the stock market. And most importantly, if you're flat for the year, you could be up a lot in the next six months if you invest right!
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