I would really like to write about something the crowd has missed, but that is not possible today — it is all about Europe. What is the situation going forward? As you might expect, I am in the minority and convinced I am right — so what do I believe?

Elections in Greece are to be held in two weeks or so. If the leftists win, they will repudiate the terms of the bailout agreement and the stage is set for the endgame of this Greek drama — that country’s exit from the euro. If the conservative parties win that hope to honor the bailout agreement, Greece’s eventual exit form the euro will be postponed until the next year.

Either way, the election will provide some clarity.

Scenario No. 1

The leftists win, some short-term certainty is offset by market turmoil. Brief market turmoil. The European Central Bank provides massive amounts of liquidity to offset a run on banks in Greece and possibly Portugal, Spain and Italy. Over time the liquidity takes effect and asset prices rise – notably in the U.S.

Scenario No. 2

The conservatives win, they buy time for Greece, markets like this and go up. As Greece and the rest of the world realize the terms of the bailout agreement can never be met and the Greeks decide to leave the euro in an orderly fashion, the European Central Bank floods banks with liquidity. The market goes up.

The issue is not a Greek exit from the euro — that will happen — the issue, if you are putting new money to work, is when this happens. But once certainty sets in — that Greece will leave and the rest of the world will not melt — the market will anticipate the ECB pumping liquidity into the banking system, the Federal Reserve may join them in a small way — and the market will go up.

Liquidity is key

History is on the side argument number 2. The Great Crash and Recession here led to the decline in the stock market that cut the S&P in half ended when Ben Bernanke announced unprecedented easing. When the market was sliding in the summer of 2010, the second round of quantitative easing turned the market around. Last December, the kickoff the European liquidity program called the LTRO — a total of more than $1 trillion between December and February — turned the market around. History is on the side of those who believe market and world events triggering more liquidity end up pushing asset prices to the upside.

What is the crowd doing right now in light of this possibility? Nothing. Many market gurus, including Dennis Gartman, who seems addicted to CNBC, belong on CNBC I mean, think “technically” the market is dangerous. So is crossing the street if you don’t pay attention.

So pay attention, separate yourself from the crowd, get yourself ready to act. I rarely make longer term market predictions — I embarrass myself in other ways — but I see the S&P rebounding and making a run to 1500 — it is around 1300 right now. This run may not be around the corner, but I believe it will happen.

While you are getting ready, take a look at the iPath S&P 500 (NYSE:VXX), the ETF for the VIX, the measure of market volatility that some call “the fear gauge.” It is climbing, as nervousness about Greece climbs.

Story originally written by Micheal Shulman