This past weekend, a column in  Barron’s quoted a research note by Alliance Bernstein’s chief market strategist, Vadim Zlotnikov, which asserted that dividend-paying stocks had become the “most crowded trade in the world.”

The research report, available here, doesn’t say that the high-dividend universe is necessarily a sell. Instead, it recommends periodic rebalancing into less crowded trades such as higher-beta, cyclical stocks.   

It’s difficult to argue with that kind of measured, contrarian thinking. Rebalancing from outperformers to laggards is a wiser move from a longer-term standpoint. However, it seems unlikely that high-beta names will start outperforming their high-dividend counterparts anytime soon.

First, consider that the recent performance gap between the two groups. If you could have owned either the S&P Dividend ETF (NYSE:SDY) or the low-dividend, high-beta iShares Inc. Russell 2000 Growth Index ETF (NYSE:IWO) for the past 12 months, which would you choose? Most investors would probably pick SDY – or most any other dividend-focused ETF for that matter – based on the hype dividend-paying stocks have been receiving lately.

But those who make the seemingly obvious choice would be off the mark – while SDY has outperformed since the market started going south in July, it is still roughly in line with IWO during the past year. This indicates that while certain higher-dividend stocks may be richly valued on a historical basis, the actual performance gap between the dividend universe and the broader market hasn’t been that large. As a result, the opportunity for a meaningful mean-reversion trade is more limited than it might appear.

It’s also important to consider why dividend stocks have been outperforming the past few months. Naturally, the down market has made larger, higher-quality companies look more appealing on a relative basis.

But there’s also the matter of dividend-paying companies being used as a fixed-income alternative and a component of “real return” investing strategies at a time in which Treasuries and TIPS yields stand at ultra-low levels. As long as Treasuries can’t keep pace with inflation, any investment with a decent yield will continue to look attractive. If anything, the case for high-dividend payers has become even more compelling following the poor market performance of the past few months.

In short, as long as the “relative yield” trade remains in vogue, so should dividend-paying stocks. The event that would bring a reversal of this trend would be a sudden upside surprise in the global economy, which would drive Treasury yields substantially higher and fuel an extended “risk-on” trade. It’s difficult to envision this type of sea change occurring in the immediate future, even if Europe’s policymakers manage to make meaningful progress in containing the debt crisis.

At some point, higher-beta, cyclical stocks will have their day in the sun again. In the 26 months between the market low of March 2009 and May 31, 2011 – a risk-on market if there ever was one – IWO outpaced SDY by over 50 percentage points. From a timing standpoint, the chart below (which begins on the low of the last bear market on March 9, 2009) shows that IWO didn’t begin to separate from SDY until nearly three months from the bottom was put in. Even if the current market’s most recent low (Oct. 3) proves to be the low point of the most recent downturn, a similar interval would place the beginning of higher-beta stocks’ outperformance sometime around Christmas.

In the meantime, investors need to assume that risk-on periods are only going to last a few days at a time until the market shows us otherwise. So be on the lookout for a shift, but don’t rush to sell those Altria (NYSE:MO) shares just yet.

One of the more interesting aspects of the Barron’s article was Zlotnikov’s finding that within the dividend universe, telecommunications, utilities, and consumer staples shares have vastly outperformed their counterparts in energy, defense, and consumer staples. This indicates an opportunity to profit from a potential sector rotation without making a bet on a return to a risk-on market. Energy may be particularly interesting here given that the oil price chart is poised to break a trendline that has been in place since mid-year.

For a potential starting point for further research, here are the highest-yielding stocks in the S&P 500 from each of the three groups mentioned in the article: