Sort Through the Wreckage of a 500-point Down Day

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So much for the summer doldrums. Investors are rapidly coming to grips with the problems facing the world economy, sending markets into a tailspin that was punctuated by Thursday’s 512-point decline in the Dow Industrials. The steady selling of the past week devolved into outright panic, with the VIX soaring to its highest level in over a year and Treasury yields collapsing to within striking distance of their 2008 lows.

After several days of weakness, the charts look frightening and there appears to be little hope for the kind of news event that could help arrest the decline. Nevertheless, don’t ignore the fact the major indices — and most individual stocks — have become very oversold in rapid fashion. The odds of a trading bounce are increasing, possibly providing intrepid investors with an opportunity to make up some lost ground in the days ahead. Consider that:

  1. The U.S. market had a 90% down day on Thursday, which means more than 90% of stocks declined and over 90% of the volume was on the downside. Typically, this level of selling signals the type of exhaustion that can precede a bounce.
  2. The RSI on the S&P 500 plunged to its lowest level since the peak of the financial crisis in late 2008, indicating exceptionally oversold conditions. The index reached a similar level prior to a short-term bottom in 2001, and again near the final low in 2002, but otherwise it has spent very little time near its current level in the low 20s.

Also, consider the similarity of the current year-to-date chart of the S&P 500 with that of the April 2007-February 2008 interval. During that time, the S&P reached a short-term bottom about 7% below its previous low, then rallied over 100 points. On Thursday, the index closed about 5% below its prior low. This is an inexact science to be sure, and of course the 2007-08 period preceded a massive market meltdown later that year. Still, this comparison helps provide a reference point for the current downturn:

Chart 2

With this as background, it’s time to put together a shopping list in preparation for a trading rally. Below is a table that shows the stocks that were furthest below their lower Bollinger bands — and therefore among the most technically oversold — as of Thursday’s close. This table is based on a screen with the following criteria:

  1. U.S.-traded stocks with prices above $7,
  2. Thursday volume above 1 million shares, and
  3. Prices more than 5% below the lower band. Leveraged ETFs are not included.

This isn’t to be taken as a recommendation of these particular stocks — some of which were down on company-specific news — but rather as a guide that provides a starting point for further research. The 99 stocks that made the cut are as follows:

Ticker Stock Sector Lower
Band
Difference
DNDN Dendreon Corp. Healthcare

24.972

-113.62%

SCOR comScore Inc Services

17.291

-33.01%

GNOM Complete Genomics Inc. Healthcare

9.658

-25.27%

WLT Walter Industries, Inc. Energy

94.659

-21.53%

MDR McDermott Intl, Inc. Energy

16.915

-21.25%

IN Intermec, Inc. Technology

9.193

-20.96%

KSWS K-Swiss, Inc. Cons. Cyclical

9.161

-20.38%

CTB Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. Cons. Cyclical

14.457

-20.37%

AHT Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. Services

9.316

-20.05%

ARO Aeropostale Inc. Services

14.747

-17.69%

CQB Chiquita Brands Intl, Inc. Cons. Non-Cyclical

10.278

-15.74%

VRX Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl, Inc. Healthcare

47.162

-15.45%

WNR Western Refining Inc. Energy

17.76

-15.40%

STRI STR Holdings Inc. Capital Goods

12.076

-14.46%

ZUMZ Zumiez Inc. Services

24.168

-11.02%

RENN Renren Inc. Technology

8.93

-10.93%

FSL Freescale Semiconductor Inc. Technology

13.899

-10.40%

FIO Fusion-io, Inc. Technology

25.865

-9.50%

CECO Career Education Corp. Services

20.262

-9.49%

ATML Atmel Corp. Technology

10.845

-8.78%

XEL.L Xcite Energy Energy

135.939

-8.75%

CLR Continental Resources Inc. Energy

61.012

-8.66%

SSW Seaspan Corporation Transportation

12.38

-8.60%

SOA Solutia Inc. Basic Materials

19.363

-8.35%

PCYC Pharmacyclics, Inc. Healthcare

10.725

-8.11%

IMGN ImmunoGen, Inc. Healthcare

11.653

-7.40%

TSL Trina Solar Ltd. Technology

16.17

-7.30%

JRCC James River Coal Company Energy

16.538

-7.11%

ACI Arch Coal, Inc. Energy

22.717

-6.90%

TS Tenaris S.A. Capital Goods

40.33

-6.81%

PCX Patriot Coal Corp. Energy

15.77

-6.77%

LAMR Lamar Advertising Co. Services

23.602

-6.75%

RRR RSC Holdings Inc. Services

9.919

-6.66%

TEN Tenneco Automotive Cons. Cyclical

37.206

-6.64%

FTK Flotek Industries Inc. Energy

7.923

-6.64%

PKG Packaging Corp Of America Basic Materials

24.84

-6.47%

YOKU Youku.com Inc. Technology

30.812

-6.47%

ALV Autoliv, Inc. Cons. Cyclical

59.887

-6.41%

DOW Dow Chemical Co. Basic Materials

32.252

-6.41%

ACM Aecom Technology Corp. Services

22.758

-6.40%

RES RPC, Inc. Energy

21.463

-6.36%

NOV National Oilwell Varco, Inc. Energy

72.691

-6.34%

BX Blackstone Group LP Financial

14.572

-6.21%

MRX Medicis Pharm Corp. Healthcare

34.089

-6.16%

SVM Silvercorp Metals, Inc. Basic Materials

9.499

-6.13%

MAKO Mako Surgical Corp. Healthcare

26.006

-6.10%

ASIA AsiaInfo Linkage, Inc. Technology

13.685

-6.00%

GSM Globe Specialty Metals Inc. Capital Goods

21.45

-5.93%

MGM MGM Resorts International Services

13.398

-5.83%

SWFT Swift Transportation Co. Transportation

9.215

-5.80%

WOR Worthington Industries, Inc. Basic Materials

19.399

-5.77%

GGB Gerdau Usa Basic Materials

8.176

-5.77%

WTI W&T Offshore Inc. Energy

24.547

-5.76%

NWL Newell Rubbermaid Inc. Cons. Non-Cyclical

13.822

-5.75%

MTZ Mastec, Inc. Capital Goods

19.043

-5.74%

AKS AKSteel Holding Corp. Basic Materials

9.736

-5.71%

UTIW UTi Worldwide Inc. Transportation

14.687

-5.70%

WBC WABCO Holdings Inc. Cons. Cyclical

57.321

-5.70%

AA Alcoa, Inc. Basic Materials

13.676

-5.69%

LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. Services

10.304

-5.68%

IPXL Impax Laboratories Inc. Healthcare

19.234

-5.68%

MTW Manitowoc Co, Inc. Capital Goods

11.948

-5.64%

WYN Wyndham Worldwide Corp. Services

31.482

-5.61%

WG Willbros Group, Inc. Energy

7.623

-5.58%

KWK Quicksilver Resources, Inc. Energy

13.049

-5.57%

DNR Denbury Resources, Inc. Energy

17.293

-5.57%

CPO Corn Products Intl Inc. Cons. Non-Cyclical

48.092

-5.56%

KOL Market Vectors – Coal ETF

44.499

-5.55%

CNX Consol Energy, Inc. Energy

46.023

-5.53%

TSLA Tesla Motors Inc. Cons. Cyclical

26.108

-5.49%

SCSS Select Comfort Corp. Cons. Cyclical

14.66

-5.47%

GLNG Golar LNG Ltd Transportation

35.616

-5.47%

ABB Abb Ltd. Technology

22.2

-5.46%

TCK Teck Resources Ltd. Basic Materials

46.023

-5.44%

ESV Ensco plc Energy

48.922

-5.44%

GPS Gap, Inc. Services

17.896

-5.39%

BAS Basic Energy Services Inc. Energy

29.056

-5.39%

CHS Chicos FAS, Inc. Services

14.099

-5.37%

KEG Key Energy Services, Inc. Energy

17.522

-5.36%

CRZO Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. Energy

35.165

-5.35%

ING Ing Groep NV ADR Financial

9.423

-5.28%

GT Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. Cons. Cyclical

14.803

-5.28%

TWI Titan Intl, Inc. Cons. Cyclical

22.4

-5.26%

CBS CBS Corp. Services

25.477

-5.23%

ERJ Embraer Aircraft Capital Goods

26.645

-5.23%

GTLS Chart Industries Inc. Capital Goods

48.696

-5.22%

HAR Harman Intl Inds, Inc. Cons. Cyclical

37.733

-5.16%

CENX Century Aluminum Co. Basic Materials

11.347

-5.16%

RIG Transocean, Inc. Energy

56.76

-5.15%

SXCI SXC Health Solutions Corp. Technology

57.434

-5.13%

HTZ Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. Services

12.699

-5.12%

VRUS Pharmasset, Inc. Healthcare

113.583

-5.12%

IEZ iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil
Equipment & Services

60.694

-5.08%

DRH DiamondRock Hospitality Co. Services

9.352

-5.08%

EV Eaton Vance Corp. Financial

24.602

-5.05%

CS Credit Suisse Group Financial

32.792

-5.04%

MENT Mentor Graphics Corp. Technology

10.251

-5.03%

CBG CB Richard Ellis Group, Inc. Services

19.85

-5.03%

LYB LyondellBasell Industries NV Basic Materials

35.188

-5.01%

 


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