How to Profit From the 10 Biggest Wall Street Lies of 2009

#3 The Recession Has Officially Ended

The recession “officially” ended in the third quarter with 3.5% GDP growth. Time to start celebrating, right? Not so fast.

Analyst and editor of Shadow Government Statistics, John Williams, wrote: “The estimate
of 3.5% annualized real growth for third-quarter GDP included a 1.7% gain from auto sales, a 0.6% gain from new residential construction, and a 0.9%
gain from a largely involuntary inventory buildup, which appears to be understated … In aggregate, those one-time stimulus or inventory items
represented 92% of the reported quarterly growth.”

What’s more, in November, the 3.5% Q3 GDP growth was revised down to 2.8%. If you consider Williams analysis in light of the sharply lower GDP number,
I’d say we’re looking at real GDP growth of zero — or worse.

Lesson for investors in 2010: You can trade headlines, but I expect we will see a double-dip recession in the real world no later
than the second quarter of next year.

Next: #4 Unemployment Will Bottom Around 10%