It’s Not All Bad News

by Jon Markman | December 3, 2008 3:14 am

We’ve all heard a ton of bad news lately from the U.S. economy and overseas unrest[1].

Yet there is plenty of good news to consider as well, and I am determined to keep you abreast of it. Here is a short list from our friends over at ISI Group in New York:

• Retail gasoline prices were down to $1.84 nationwide last week.
• The Fed will purchase $500 billion of mortgage backed securities[2] and $100 billion in mortgage agency debt, and lend $200 billion to support the issuance of asset-backed securities.
• Mortgage rates came down to 5.7% last week and a new wave of refi started.
• Stocks rallied in the face of bad economic and terror news, even in Asia.
• New house inventories are down 30%. Michigan sales were up 14% in October and California home sales were up 120% from their low.
• Existing house prices nationwide fell 3.5% month over month in October and are expected to fall another 10% at least over the next nine months, which would amount to a 30% decline from peak. If that happens, the house price-to-income ratio would be back to its historical average. It’ll probably overshoot from there, but when you consider that mortgage rates will likely be at 5% by then, this is good news.
• Citigroup (C[3]) shares shot up 60% following its rescue, including big buys from Mexico and Saudi Arabia.
• The monetary base was up 78%, and Barrons reported that the Fed’s balance sheet might swell up to $6 trillion (from less than $1 trillion last year) as it buys unwanted securities to help banks.
• The European Central Bank is finally with the program, and might cut EU interest rates by as much as 100 basis points this week.
• The European Union proposed a $259 billion stimulus package; the United Kingdom announced a $30 billion stimulus; Russia announced a $36 billion package; and China slashed interest rates.

And Now, the Not-So-Good News

We can’t get too carried away with a Pollyanna viewpoint though, so now let’s look at the bad news to put into our thinking about stocks, again courtesy of ISI:

• Nominal consumer spending[4] has fallen at a -4.5% annual rate in the past four months, the fastest decline in 50 years. Durable goods orders (cars, fridges) are especially on the skids.
• China’s stock market fell last week even amid rallies elsewhere in the world despite talk of a huge fiscal stimulus and a massive interest-rate cut.
• Terrorist activities are on the rise again, providing a reminder of instability. It’s not just the horrible attacks in Mumbai, but also the violent job protests in China, the airport shutdown in Thailand and ships seized by Somali pirates — all affecting business people’s confidence.
• Corporate profits are down 16% from their peak mainly due to domestic weakness that’s expected to continue at least through the third quarter next year. With foreign recessions intensifying and the dollar rising, U.S. overseas profits will probably are in line to get hit next. So expect a total profit decline of 25% peak to trough, which is considerably worse than the -20% profit decline average seen in previous recessions.
• Global GDP growth is weakening measurably and is likely already in recession territory. It’s not just the big economies like the U.S. and Europe, either. Japan’s domestic auto sales were down 27% in November; South Korea’s exports were down 18% in November; and even little Estonia saw a 54% decline in car purchases last month.

In summary, the wheels are still coming off the domestic and global economy.

The bulls say that the economic statistics always look the worst at the bottom, and that this is the time we should be buying with both hands in anticipation of a turn higher by the middle of next year. However, I think that they are underestimating the effects of bank and corporate deleveraging, and overestimating the ability of governments to reflate the financial system quickly.

Being this negative on corporate results and the markets goes against my sunny nature, but I am obligated to call this game as I see it.

As soon as I start to see real accumulation of stocks and not just relentless distribution, you will be the first to know. Indeed, from a cycles point of view, we could very well see an important low around December 10.

Stay tuned.

To learn how to make money in this tough environment, check out my Trader’s Advantage letter[5].

This article was written by Jon Markman[6], contributor to InvestorPlace Media. For more actionable insights likes this, visit www.InvestorPlace.com.

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